GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT OF FOREST COVER LOSS IN THE LOWER DNIEPER ARENA LANDSCAPES RESULTING FROM MILITARY ACTIONS

Abstract

This study implements a methodological approach to geospatial analysis and assessment of losses inartificial forest plantations in the Lower Dnieper sandy areas within the Kherson region for the period2022–2026, resulting from the cumulative impact of military operations and the associated hydrologicalcollapse. Based on the Hansen Global Forest Change global raster datasets in the QGIS environment,differentiated monitoring of forest cover dynamics was conducted using two threshold criteria forcanopy closure: >75% – to identify the stable “core” of mature pine forests, and >15% – to document thedegradation of mosaic landscapes (sparse forests, young plantations, shrubs, and broadleaf undergrowth).Analysis of fire activity and thermal damage to the territory was conducted using satellite alerts from the VIIRS Active Fire Alerts system, which recorded 474 thermal hotspots with pronounced military macropeaksin 2022 and 2024–2025, associated with combat operations on the Krynky bridgehead and theactive use of UAVs. Using the northern section of the Kozachi Laheri arena as an example, abnormalspikes in forest loss were identified: in 2022, the area of simultaneous loss of high-canopy forest jumpedto 1,500 hectares, and in the peak year of 2024, due to the synergistic effect of artillery shelling and thedrying out of tree stands following the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, it reachedan extreme maximum of nearly 4,500 hectares (for a threshold >75%) and a colossal 16,000 hectares (fora threshold >15%).Aggregate data for the entire region indicate an irreversible loss of 8,600 hectares of forest land. It hasbeen proven that the rapid drop in the level of fresh groundwater following the draining of the reservoirdeprived the stands of their underground water supply, transforming the weakened forests into highlyflammable material, which led to a high frequency of fires and crown fires in 2024–2026. The resultingcartographic matrices serve as an objective basis for verifying environmental damage and for long-termplanning of post-war ecological restoration and nature conservation measures under conditions whereground-based monitoring is blocked, as the exposure of unstable sandy substrates poses catastrophicthreats of intensified wind erosion and desertification in Southern Ukraine.